Turns out Graduate School is VERY busy, so I haven’t been regularly writing anything on my blog, but I am currently on my way to Skate America (literally at the airport), having lots of thoughts about what we’re going to see this week and what signals it might send for the rest of the fall season headed into the olympics. I’ve also included my predictions for this week’s podiums, so that I can go back on Sunday and laugh at myself :)
Men
Obviously, the main man to watch here is going to be Nathan Chen. I’m excited to finally see his programs more fleshed out for the season (Is the Nemesis rumor true?!?), and see what the quads are looking like at this point. Unless something goes awry here, I completely expect Nathan to come out with gold.
However, silver and bronze are a little unknown. Vincent is surely gunning for the silver, and hoping to continue to build back his consistency and reputation after his disastrous World Championship performance in March. And I think the other battle that’s going to play out here is the one between the two Japanese Men- Shoma and Shun. Shoma is one of my favorites, but god help his jump technique and consistency. I was so pleasantly surprised to see Shun’s improvement and consistency at the Japan Open a few weeks ago, and I do think that if things go a certain way, Shun could find himself medalling above Shoma, which could really send a message. Shoma could really be in danger of losing his Olympic spot if Shun progressing above him throughout this season.
Also….I love Artur Danielian and I’m just so excited to see him skate live.
My predictions for the podium:
Gold: Nathan Chen (USA)
Silver: Vincent Zhou (USA)
Bronze: Shoma Uno (JPN)
Pairs
I’d say there are two main matchups to watch for in the pairs this weekend.
First, Boikova/Kozlovskii versus Tarasova/Morozov. I feel like the ranking of these two teams is just always changing, based on whether Boikova lands her throw jumps and whether Tarasova and Morozov wake up that day. Tarasova and Morozov are the better team skills-wise, but it will be interesting to see how Sambo-70 coaching continues to impact their consistency. I also haven’t seen Boikova and Kozlovskii’s programs as many times, so I’ll be curious to see how they’ve developed.
And Second, Riku and Ryuichi will certainly be looking to rank ahead of the Americans here, and I expect for the top Americans to be Alexa and Brandon. The Japanese team will be coming off their win at Autumn Classic, and I’ll actually be so happy to see that momentum continue into this Grand Prix series.
My predictions for the podium:
Gold: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)
Silver: Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS)
Bronze: Miura/Kihara (JPN)
Dance
I think the main thing we’ll be looking for in this weekend’s dance competition is how the two top American teams, Hubbell and Donohue and Chock and Bates, rank. I suspect that Chock and Bates will be ahead; their programs are quite modern and interesting, and even though I really don’t care for the long program, they were certainly scored well at Finlandia, whereas Hubbell and Donohue’s scores at US International classic were not as high as they could have been (even though they did indeed win). I’d also like to come away from the event with more appreciation for Chock and Bates’ free dance…although that might be stretching my abilities a bit…
My predictions for the podium:
Gold: Chock and Bates (USA)
Silver: Hubbell and Donohue (USA)
Bronze: Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (CAN)
Ladies
And finally the ladies. I’d say there’s a lot to be looking for this weekend in the ladies competition. I think Trusova is coming into Vegas with something to prove after the quad failures in Boston a few weeks ago. And her teammate Daria will definitely be pushing for a silver medal, even without a quad or triple axel, which I think is doable if she’s clean. But will Sinitsyna come with her quads? I recall seeing some instagram videos of her training them, so I might be underestimating her ability to do well in this competition…
I expect the Japanese ladies to do well enough and probably rank just behind, or even amongst, the Russians. Kaori will likely lead the Japanese group, even after her messy free skate loss last week at Asian Open. And obviously I will be rooting for my one true love, Satoko Miyahara, but I have a feeling her jumps will just end up bringing me heartbreak.
And then we also can’t count out the Koreans. Young You will certainly be coming with multiple triple axels, and Yelim Kim really excelled last season- her programs were probably some of my favorite from 2020-2021, so I’ll be curious to see what her skating looks like in person.
And of course there’s Amber Glenn, who’ll be coming in with something to prove after a failed Finlandia outing and an opening with Bradie Tennell withdrawing from Skate America. I still wouldn’t count Amber out for an Olympic spot if she can pull herself (i.e., her jumps) together.
My predictions for the podium:
Gold: Sasha Trusova (RUS)
Silver: Daria Usacheva (RUS)
Bronze: Kaori Sakamoto (JPN)
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