*Note: Since writing this post a few hours ago, ISU has confirmed at least 1 positive COVID test within the World Championship bubble.
Since the ISU and Sweden have gone ahead with hosting the 2021 World Championships in Stockholm (read my last post as to why this should have been cancelled...), it's time to throw darts and make some predictions as to how this week is going to go down. Motivated by both fact and ~wishful thinking~, here are my thoughts.
Ladies' Predictions:
Gold: Anna Shcherbakova (RUS)
Silver: Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
Bronze: Rika Kihira (JPN)
The ladies competition here in Stockholm is going to be FIERCE. All the Russian ladies are coming with ultra-c elements (quads and triple axels), and Rika Kihira is showing up with her own. My official guess is that the ladies podium is going to end up mostly reflecting the overall base value of program content. Anna Shcherbakova will likely be doing ~3 quads in the long program, and while this content is not as difficult as Trusova's (who's likely going to try like 5 quads and a triple axel), I do think they'll give the PCS to Anna over Sasha. While both of them will show up very prepared and solid (despite Anna's illness), I think Sasha's program content is just too difficult for her not to have a fall or two along the way. Plus, Anna has continually placed ahead of Sasha all season and has the momentum coming in, especially because Eteri and the Sambo 70 team are doing everything in their power for Anna to win gold. And for bronze? I think it'll be Rika. She still has her triple axels, and will be attempting the 4S again in the free skate, which she landed pretty solidly at Japanese Nationals. If this is indeed the podium order, I will be curious to see how close Rika scores (both GOE and PCS) compared to Anna and Sasha. Rika could end up on the podium at the Olympics next year, but that will depend on how judges rank her with the Russian technique and style that is so popularized right now. But there are so many other questions at-play for this discipline. Can Elizaveta Tuktamysheva or Kaori Sakamoto move into podium positions if mistakes are made? Can Satoko deliver clean jumps to match her incredible skating skills? Where are the US ladies going to end up (i.e. how many spots are US ladies actually going to have in Beijing)? Will I have another emotional response to Eva-Lotta's Harry Styles program? Who knows, can't wait to see :)
Men's Predictions:
Gold: Nathan Chen (USA)
Silver: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)
Bronze: Mikhail Kolyada (RUS)
I know I may be making enemies here, but I do feel like Nathan will come out ahead of Yuzuru in Sweden. Yuzuru is the best ~skater~ in the mens field, but even with his sharp quads, I don't think the base content can beat Nathan's, especially because Nathan is surely coming to these World Championships prepared for this battle. And while I like both of Yuzuru's new programs, I don't feel that they are as brilliant as his previous programs have been. Yuzuru tends to use programs for two or three seasons to really perfect the emotion and depth of them, and these do not have that mileage. Plus, in the past few years, he has been gradually losing consistency. I think it will be very close, and Nathan could easily end up in second behind Yuzuru, but at this point I think Nathan will win gold. And the bronze spot is really up for grabs. It could go to Shoma Uno, whose programs I am IN LOVE with. It could even go to Vincent or Jason from the US. But my heart is rooting for Kolyada to end up on the podium. His comeback this season has been so beautiful to watch, and his consistency has been increasing throughout the year. I believe he is also planning on adding more quads to his free skate, which was already my favorite program of the year. Crossing my fingers!!
Pairs Predictions:
Gold: Sui/Han (CHN)
Silver: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)
Bronze: Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS)
Pairs is going to be a toss up, primarily because all of the Russian teams have rotated ranks throughout the year, and we haven't seen Sui/Han this season at all at this point. But I'm putting Sui/Han first because the heart wants what it wants. They're repeating their BEST short and free programs for this year's championships, and I'm hoping that their return will shock audiences in the best way. They were injured over the summer and earlier in the Fall, but I'm sure their preparation for the olympics has already begun and they're looking to get back up in the rankings at this competition. In terms of the Russian teams, the three of them could really end up in any order, but I do think there will be at least 2 Russian teams on the podium. Tarasova/Morozov performed so well at Nationals, and I think that, assuming no major major mistakes, judges will still put them above Boikova/Kozlovskii and Mishina/Galliamov because of their maturity. As for B/K and M/G, I really don't know who will end up ahead, but I'm putting my prediction with B/K. They were likely set to actually win worlds last year, and I'm thinking that some of that previous momentum could play out in Stockholm. In the last 24 hours, B/K have also announced a brand new short program to Howl's Moving Castle, and that could produce some added energy to their appearance that could then put them ahead of M/G.
Dance Predictions:
Gold: Chock/Bates (USA)
Silver: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
Bronze: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
I'm laughing to myself as I write these dance predictions because I know SO LITTLE about how the politics will play out this year without the French competing. First off, I think the dance competition will feel empty without Papadakis/Cizeron. I don't mean that to disrespect the talent that all other teams bring, but P/C just make this discipline feel exciting and compelling. Oh well. I think Chock/Bates could win this. While their snake charmer free dance is old, they never actually ended up performing it at a World Championship, and I think the judges might be willing to reward it as they would have last year when it was fresher. Plus, Chock/Bates only lost nationals to Hubbell/Donohue because of mistakes, and they will be pushing to make both of their performances perfect here in Sweden. I love Hubbell/Donohue's power, but I think right now the momentum lies with Chock/Bates. I like their Hallelujah free dance and the emotion it brings, but even though it's a new program, it's still overused music that makes it feel less original than it is. And then for bronze...I'm only predicting Sinitsina/Katsalapov because, before COVID hit, their momentum was putting them ahead of the French (wrongfully so, but it's still a fact)! So I feel like it would be an odd shift in politics if they were left off the podium. However, Sinitsina has struggled with illness and injury this season, and Katsalapov has gotten messier with his technique and movement over time. Could Gilles/Poirier from Canada (aka the loves of my life) end up in Bronze ahead of the Russians?? Maybe I should predict that-that would be a more wild hypothesis. We'll have to wait and see...
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